Discussion Paper No. 525
January 29, 2025
Informative Certification: Screening vs. Acquisition
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Abstract:
We study monopolistic certification in a buyer-seller relationship, explicitly distinguishing between its role as a device for screening versus acquisition. As a screening device, certification discloses soft information about a seller's private information. As an acquistion device, certification discloses hard information about the good's quality. Despite being costless, we show that, optimally, a monopolistic certifier provides non-maximal information-acquisition, while offering maximal screening. Thus, monopolistic certification exhibits no economic distortions as a screening device, resolving all private information, but provides too little hard information as an acquisition device. While feasible and costless, full information acquisition is suboptimal as it requires excessive information rents. Consequently, market inefficiencies remain due to market uncertainty but not due to private information.
Keywords:
certification; disclosure; screening; information acquisition; monopolistic distortions;
JEL-Classification:
D82;
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Discussion Paper No. 517
December 8, 2024
A Mean-Field Game of Market Entry
Author:
Abstract:
We consider both N-player and mean-field games of optimal portfolio liquidation in which the players are not allowed to change the direction of trading. Players with an initially short position of stocks are only allowed to buy while players with an initially long position are only allowed to sell the stock. Under suitable conditions on the model parameters we show that the games are equivalent to games of timing where the players need to determine the optimal times of market entry and exit. We identify the equilibrium entry and exit times and prove that equilibrium mean-trading rates can be characterized in terms of the solutions to a highly non-linear higher-order integral equation with endogenous terminal condition. We prove the existence of a unique solution to the integral equation from which we obtain the existence of a unique equilibrium both in the mean-field and the N-player game.
Keywords:
portfolio liquidation; mean-field game; Nash equilibrium; trading constraint; non-linear integral equations;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 495
February 15, 2024
Insourcing Vs Outsourcing in Vertical Structure
Author:
Abstract:
We study an agency model with vertical hierarchy---the principal, the prime-agent and the sub-agent. The principal faces a project that needs both agents' services. Due to costly communication, the principal receives a report only from the prime-agent, who receives a report from the sub-agent. The principal can directly incentivize each agent by setting individual transfers (insourcing), or sets only one overall transfer to an independent organization in which the prime-agent hires the sub-agent (outsourcing). We show that insourcing is always optimal when the principal can perfectly process the prime-agent's report. When the principal's information process is limited, however, outsourcing can be the prevailing mode of operation. In addition, insourcing under limited information process is prone to collusion between the agents, whereas no possibility of collusion arises with outsourcing.
Keywords:
information process; sourcing policy; vertical structure;
JEL-Classification:
D86; L23; L25;
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Discussion Paper No. 409
July 5, 2023
(Dis)honesty and the Value of Transparency for Campaign Promises
Author:
Abstract:
Promise competition is prevalent in many economic environments, but promise keeping is often difficult to observe. We study the value of transparency for promise competition and ask whether promises still offer an opportunity to honor future obligations when outcomes do not allow for observing promise keeping. Focusing on campaign promises, we show theoretically how preferences for truth-telling shape promise competition when promise keeping can(not) be observed and identify the causal effects of transparency in an incentivized experiment. Transparency leads to less promise breaking but also to less generous promises. Rent appropriations are higher in opaque institutions though only weakly so when not fully opaque. Instrumental reputational concerns and preferences for truth-telling explain these results.
Keywords:
campaign promises; promise breaking; voting; lying costs; preferences for truth-telling; political Economy; theory; experiment;
JEL-Classification:
C91; C92; D72; D73; D91;
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Discussion Paper No. 391
March 29, 2023
On the (Ir)Relevance of Fee Structures in Certification
Author:
Abstract:
Restrictions on certifiers’ fee structures are irrelevant for maximizing their profits and trade efficiency, and for the implementability of (monotone) distributions of rents. The irrelevance results exploit that certification schemes involve two substitutable dimensions—the fee structure and the disclosure rule—and adaptations in the disclosure dimension can mitigate restrictions on the fee dimension. While restrictions on fee structures do affect market transparency, it has no impact on economic efficiency or rent distributions.
Keywords:
certification; fee structures; disclosure rules; transparency;
JEL-Classification:
D82;
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Discussion Paper No. 368
January 20, 2023
Optimal Trade Execution under Endogenous Order Flow
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Abstract:
We consider an optimal liquidation model in which an investor is required to execute meta-orders during intraday trading periods, and his trading activity triggers child orders and endogenously affects future order flow, both instantaneously and permanently. Under the assumptions of risk neutrality and deterministic constants of the impact parameters, we provide closed-form solutions and illustrate the relationship between trading strategies and feedback effects. The optimal trading strategy is of hyperbolic form if the feedback effect of current trading on future order flow is not too strong. If the feedback effect becomes too dominating, a cyclic strategy with possible beneficial round-trips may emerge. We set up an estimation framework so that parameter estimates can be made directly from public data and are consistent with the theoretical model. When implementing our model on 110 NASDAQ stocks, the empirical analysis shows that as the level of endogeneity increases, our strategy provides increasingly better performance than the commonly adopted trading strategy. The empirical analysis also shows that too strong feedback effects do not exist in practice, thus ruling out statistical arbitrage.
Keywords:
liquidity risk; optimal trading strategy; portfolio liquidation; Hawkes process;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 365
January 4, 2023
Biased Beliefs in Search Markets
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Abstract:
We study the implications of biased consumer beliefs for search market outcomes in the seminal framework due to Diamond (1971). Biased consumers base their search strategy on a belief function which specifies for any (true) distribution of utility offers in the market a possibly incorrect distribution of utility offers. If biased consumers overestimate the best offer in the market, a novel type of equilibrium may emerge in which firms make exceptionally favourable offers in order to meet biased consumers' unreasonable high expectations which then become partially self-fulfilling. Consequently, the presence of biased consumers may improve the welfare of all consumers.
Keywords:
consumer search; bounded rationality; cursed beliefs;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 364
Competition in Search Markets with Naive Consumers
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Abstract:
We study the interplay between quality provision and consumer search in a search market where firms may design products of inferior quality to promote them to naive consumers who fail to fully understand product characteristics. We derive an equilibrium in which both superior and inferior quality is offered and show that as search frictions vanish, the share of firms offering superior goods in the market goes to zero. The presence of inferior products harms sophisticated consumers, as it forces them to search longer to find a superior product. We argue that policy interventions that reduce search frictions such as the standardization of price and package formats may harm welfare. In contrast, reducing the number of naive consumers through transparency policies and education campaigns as well as a minimum quality standard can improve welfare.
Keywords:
inferior products; competition; naivete; consumer search;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 362
Approximate Bayesian Implementation and Exact Maxmin Implementation: An Equivalence
Author:
Abstract:
This paper provides a micro-foundation for approximate incentive compatibility using ambiguity aversion. In particular, we propose a novel notion of approximate interim incentive compatibility, approximate local incentive compatibility, and establish an equivalence between approximate local incentive compatibility in a Bayesian environment and exact interim incentive compatibility in the presence of a small degree of ambiguity. We then apply our result to the implementation of efficient allocations. In particular, we identify three economic settings—including ones in which approximately efficient allocations are implementable, ones in which agents are informationally small, and large double auctions—in which efficient allocations are approximately locally implementable when agents are Bayesian. Applying our result to those settings, we conclude that efficient allocations are exactly implementable when agents perceive a small degree of ambiguity.
Keywords:
approximate local incentive compatibility; ambiguity aversion; efficiency; informational size; modified VCG mechanism; double auction;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 361
Intertemporal Hedging and Trade in Repeated Games with Recursive Utility
Author:
Abstract:
Recursive preferences have found widespread application in representative-agent asset-pricing models and general equilibrium. A majority of these applications exploit two decision-theoretic properties not shared by the standard model of intertemporal choice: (i) agents care about the intertemporal distribution of risk and (ii) rates of time preference, rather than being exogenously fixed, may vary with the level of consumption. We investigate what these features imply in the context of a repeated strategic interaction. Specifically, we identify novel opportunities for the players to manage risk and trade intertemporally, and characterize when such opportunities lead to an expansion of the fea- sible set of payoffs. Sharp implications for equilibrium behavior and the folk theorem are also deduced.
Keywords:
recursive utility; repeated games; correlation aversion; endogenous discounting; intertemporal trade; intertemporal hedging;
JEL-Classification: