Discussion Papers

Discussion Paper No. Author: Karle, Heiko (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)Engelmann, Dirk (HU Berlin)Peitz, Martin (University of Mannheim) Abstract: In this paper, we match data on student performance in a multiple-choice exam with data on student risk preferences that are extracted from
September 16, 2019

Student Performance and Loss Aversion

Author:

Karle, Heiko (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)
Engelmann, Dirk (HU Berlin)
Peitz, Martin (University of Mannheim)

Abstract:

In this paper, we match data on student performance in a multiple-choice exam with data on student risk preferences that are extracted from a classroom experiment. We find that more-loss-averse students leave more questions unanswered and perform worse in the multiple-choice exam when giving an incorrect answer is penalized compared to not answering. We provide evidence that loss aversion parameters extracted from lottery choices in a controlled experiment have predictive power in a field environment of decision making under uncertainty. Furthermore, the degree of loss aversion appears to be persistent over time, as the experiment was conducted three months prior to the exam. We also find important di erences across genders; they are partly explained by di erences in loss aversion.

Keywords:

loss aversion; decision making under uncertainty; multiple choice

JEL-Classification:

C91; D01; D11; D83

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Discussion Paper No. 181
August 23, 2019

Does Experience Shape Subjective Expectations?

Author:

Rossmann, Tobias (LMU Munich)

Abstract:

This paper documents that individuals' expectations about macroeconomic outcomes are systematically linked with the experiences of these macroeconomic outcomes they have made during life. Focusing on expectations about national inflation, national unemployment and national business conditions, I measure individual-specific experiences as weighted averages of these variables over the respondents' lifetime, respectively. I find that experience significantly predicts respondents' expectations in each of these domains and show that individuals generally put more weight on recent rather than distant years when aggregating past information. The empirical model also allows for heterogeneity with respect to observed socio-economic characteristics. The estimates suggest the existence of a gender effect. Compared to females, males put relatively more weight on distant years when aggregating past information, and the association between expectations and past experiences is generally weaker for men.

Keywords:

expectations; experience; inflation; unemployment; business conditions

JEL-Classification:

D84; E24; E31

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Discussion Paper No. 180
August 19, 2019

Cash in Hand and Savings Decisions

Author:

Spantig, Lisa (LMU Munich)

Abstract:

Cash is an important means of transaction, generally assumed to be fungible. However, behavioral economics and consumer research show that 'cash in hand', physically holding on to cash and then handing it away, affects purchasing decisions. I study how cash in hand influences decisions in a different but very important domain: savings. Savings accounts are a promising tool for reducing poverty, but the use of savings accounts is often puzzlingly low. Holding on to cash that needs to be physically deposited into a savings account may increase the psychological costs of saving. This study experimentally identifies the causal effect of cash in hand on savings deposits of microfinance clients in the Philippines. In contrast to many laboratory and several field studies with similar interventions, I do not find reduced savings deposits due to cash in hand. I discuss reasons for and consequence of this surprising finding, in particular for developing economics where lots of transactions are still cash-based.

Keywords:

cash; savings; experiment

JEL-Classification:

D90; C90; G40

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Discussion Paper No. 179
August 7, 2019

How to Avoid Black Markets for Appointments with Online Booking Systems

Authors:

Hakimov, Rustamdjan (University of Lausanne)
Heller, Christian-Philipp (NERA Consulting)
Kübler, Dorothea (WZB Berlin)
Kurino, Morimitsu (Keio University Tokyo)

Abstract:

Allocating appointment slots is presented as a new application for market design. We consider online booking systems that are commonly used by public authorities to allocate appointments for driver's licenses, visa interviews, passport renewals, etc. We document that black markets for appointments have developed in many parts of the world. Scalpers book the appointments that are offered for free and sell the slots to appointment seekers. We model the existing first-come-first-served booking system and propose an alternative system. The alternative system collects applications for slots for a certain time period and then randomly allocates slots to applicants. We investigate the two systems under conditions of low and high demand for slots. The theory predicts and lab experiments confirm that scalpers profitably book and sell slots under the current system with high demand, but that they are not active in the proposed new system under both demand conditions.

Keywords:

market design; online booking system; first come first served; scalping

JEL-Classification:

C92; D47

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Discussion Paper No. 178
August 7, 2019

Managerial Payoff and Gift-Exchange in the Field

Authors:

Englmaier, Florian (LMU Munich)
Leider, Steve (University of Michigan)

Abstract:

We conduct a field experiment where we vary both the presence of a gift-exchange wage and the effect of the worker's effort on the manager's payoff. Results indicate a strong complementarity between the initial wage-gift and the agent's ability to "repay the gift". We control for differences in ability and reciprocal inclination and show that gift-exchange is more effective with more reciprocal agents. We present a principal-agent model with reciprocal subjects that motivates our findings. Our results help to reconcile the conflicting evidence on the efficacy of gift-exchange outside the lab.

Keywords:

incentives; field experiments; gift-exchange; reciprocity

JEL-Classification:

C91; J33; M52

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Discussion Paper No. 177
August 5, 2019

Should There Be Lower Taxes On Patent Income?

Authors:

Gaessler, Fabian (MPI-IC Munich)
Hall, Bronwyn H. (MPI-IC Munich)
Harhoff, Dietmar (MPI-IC Munich)

Abstract:

A "patent box" is a term for the application of a lower corporate tax rate to the income derived from the ownership of patents. This tax subsidy instrument has been introduced in a number of countries since 2000. Using comprehensive data on patents filed at the European Patent Office, including information on ownership transfers pre- and post-grant, we investigate the impact of the introduction of a patent box on international patent transfers, on the choice of ownership location, and on invention in the relevant country. We find that the impact on transfers is small but present, especially when the tax instrument contains a development condition and for high value patents (those most likely to have generated income), but that invention itself is not affected. This calls into question whether the patent box is an effective instrument for encouraging innovation in a country, rather than simply facilitating the shifting of corporate income to low tax jurisdictions.

Keywords:

patent box; ip box; innovation tax; beps; epo; invention incentive; patent ownership

JEL-Classification:

H32; H34; K34; O34

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Discussion Paper No. 176
August 5, 2019

Patents, Data Exclusivity, and the Development of New Drugs

Authors:

Gaessler, Fabian (MPI-IC Munich)
Wagner, Stefan (ESMT Berlin)

Abstract:

Pharmaceutical firms typically enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent protection of the underlying invention (through patents) and the clinical trials data submitted for market approval (through data exclusivity). Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity at the project level. In instrumental variables regressions we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug commercialization. The effect is largely driven by patent invalidations early in the drug development process and by the responses of large originators. We hereby provide first estimates of the responsiveness of R&D investments to market exclusivity expectations.

Keywords:

patents; drugs; data exclusivity; clinical trials

JEL-Classification:

K41; L24; L65; O31; O32; O34

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Discussion Paper No. 175
August 5, 2019

Speculative Trade and Market Newcomers

Author:

Klishchuk, Bogdan (HU Berlin)

Abstract:

Arguing that in the real world relatively optimistic inexperienced investors are prey for relatively pessimistic veteran traders, we formalize this intuitive conjecture as a proven proposition in a simple model. This agreement to disagree leads to a perpetual bubble, in which more experienced, but less optimistic, investors keep selling overpriced assets to less experienced traders. As in a fraction of the uniform-experience literature, lack of short-selling makes room for the success of such bubble schemes. This previous literature did not allow for persistent effects of experience on beliefs and, instead, relied on more direct assumptions of belief heterogeneity. Although we map experience into beliefs in a specific way, the intuition behind the perpetual bubble involves the above-mentioned disagreement patterns, not belief formation itself.

Keywords:

speculative trade; price bubble; experience; optimism; belief heterogeneity; non-bayesian learning; short-selling

JEL-Classification:

D08; D09; G01; G04

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Discussion Paper No. 174
August 5, 2019

Immigration and the Evolution of Local Cultural Norms

Authors:

Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Ministry of Finance)
Weinhardt, Felix (DIW Berlin)

Abstract:

We study the local evolution of cultural norms in West Germany in reaction to the sudden presence of East Germans who migrated to the West after reunification. These migrants grew up with very high rates of maternal employment, whereas West German families followed the traditional breadwinner-housewife model. We find that West German women increase their labor supply and that this holds within household. We provide additional evidence on stated gender norms, West-East friendships, intermarriage, and childcare infrastructure. The dynamic evolution of the local effects on labor supply is best explained by local cultural learning and endogenous childcare infrastructure.

Keywords:

cultural norms; local learning; gender; immigration

JEL-Classification:

J16; J21; D01

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Discussion Paper No. 173
July 30, 2019

Boolean Representations of Preferences under Ambiguity

Authors:

Frick, Mira (Yale University)
Iijima, Ryota (Yale University)
Le Yaouanq, Yves (LMU Munich)

Abstract:

We propose a class of multiple-prior representations of preferences under ambiguity where the belief the decision-maker (DM) uses to evaluate an uncertain prospect is the outcome of a game played by two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. The model does not restrict the sign of the DM's ambiguity attitude, and we show that it provides a unified framework through which to characterize different degrees of ambiguity aversion, as well as to represent context-dependent negative and positive ambiguity attitudes documented in experiments. We prove that our baseline representation, Boolean expected utility (BEU), yields a novel representation of the class of invariant biseparable preferences (Ghirardato, Maccheroni and Marinacci, 2004), which drops uncertainty aversion from maxmin expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989), while extensions of BEU allow for more general departures from independence.

Keywords:

multiple priors; ambiguity; dual-self models

JEL-Classification:

D81

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