Discussion Paper No. 221
November 9, 2021
Inattention and Switching Costs as Sources of Inertia in Medicare Part D
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Consumers’ health plan choices are highly persistent even though optimal plans change over time. This paper separates two sources of inertia, inattention to plan choice and switching costs. We develop a panel data model with separate attention and choice stages, linked by heterogeneity in acuity, i.e., the ability and willingness to make diligent choices. Using data from Medicare Part D, we find that inattention is an important source of inertia but switching costs also play a role, particularly for low-acuity individuals. Separating the two stages and allowing for heterogeneity is crucial for counterfactual simulations of interventions that reduce inertia.
Keywords:
medicare; prescription drugs; health insurance demand; dynamic discrete choice;
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Discussion Paper No. 213
Does Relative Performance Information Lower Group Morale?
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In many organizations, productivity relies not just on individual effort but also on group morale, that is, the willingness of co-workers to help each other perform better at work. Relative performance evaluations (RPE) are known to increase individual work morale but may negatively affect group morale because they create a sense of competition among members of a reference group. In a novel experiment, I vary whether or not members of a reference group obtain relative performance information on a task that is relevant for their social image or selfimage, a general knowledge test. I measure how this affects the subsequent willingness to help the productivity of others by sharing knowledge with them at a personal cost. I find that RPE cause members of a reference group to compete as intensely as under relative pay, compared to a baseline with no relative performance information and fixed piece-rates. It also increases the perceived social distance between them. Yet, I show that even after a performance competition, individuals are willing to help the productivity of others in the group. These findings advance our understanding of how relative concerns among co-workers affect the way they work together.
Keywords:
relative performance information; rank feedback; social incentives; on-the-job help; group productivity; social and self-image; experiment;
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Discussion Paper No. 198
Reciprocity in Dynamic Employment Relationships
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This paper explores the optimal provision of dynamic incentives for employees with reciprocal preferences. Building on the presumption that a relational contract can establish a norm of reciprocity, I show that generous upfront wages that activate an employee’s reciprocal preferences are more important when he is close to retirement. In earlier stages, “direct” performance-pay promising a bonus in exchange for effort is used more extensively. Then, a longer remaining time horizon increases the employer’s commitment which is generally determined by her future profits. Moreover, since future profits are affected by the employee’s reciprocal preferences, the norm of reciprocity already shapes the incentive system at the beginning of his career. I also show that more competition might magnify the use of reciprocity-based incentives, and that a formal commitment to paying nondiscretionary wages in the future can boost the employer’s credibibility.
Keywords:
reciprocity; relational contracts; dynamic incentives;
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Discussion Paper No. 195
Decision-Making Traits and States as Determinants of Risky Choices
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We test the effects of dual processing differences in both individual traits and decision states on risk taking. In an experiment with a large representative sample (N = 1,832), we vary whether risky choices are induced to be based on either emotion or reason, while simultaneously measuring individual decision-making traits. Our results show that decision-making traits are strong and robust determinants of risk taking: a more intuitive trait is associated with more risk taking, while a more deliberative trait is associated with less risk taking. Experimentally induced states, on the other hand, have no effect on risk taking. A test of state-trait interactions shows that the association between an intuitive trait and risk taking becomes weaker in the emotion-inducing state and in the loss domain. In contrast, the association between a deliberative trait and risk taking is stable across states. These findings highlight the importance of considering state-trait interactions when using dual processing theories to predict individual differences in risk taking.
Keywords:
risk preferences; intuition; emotion; reason; experiment;
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Discussion Paper No. 184
The Wage Penalty of Regional Accents
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Previous work has documented that speaking one’s native language with an accent distinct from the mainstream is associated with lower wages. In this study, we seek to estimate the causal effect of speaking with a distinctive regional accent, disentangling the effect of the accent from that of omitted variables. We collected data on workers’ speech in Germany, a country with wide variation in regional dialects. We use a variety of strategies in estimation, including an instrumental variables strategy in which the instruments are based on research findings from the linguistics of accent acquisition. All of our estimators show that speaking with a distinctive regional accent reduces wages by an amount that is comparable to the gender wage gap. We also find that workers with distinctive regional accents tend to sort away from occupations that demand high levels of face-to-face contact, consistent with various occupational sorting models.
Keywords:
accent; dialect; wage penalty; discrimination; SOEP;
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Discussion Paper No. 182
Student Performance and Loss Aversion
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In this paper, we match data on student performance in a multiple-choice exam with data on student risk preferences that are extracted from a classroom experiment. We find that more-loss-averse students leave more questions unanswered and perform worse in the multiple-choice exam when giving an incorrect answer is penalized compared to not answering. We provide evidence that loss aversion parameters extracted from lottery choices in a controlled experiment have predictive power in a field environment of decision making under uncertainty. Furthermore, the degree of loss aversion appears to be persistent over time, as the experiment was conducted three months prior to the exam. We also find important differences across genders; they are partly explained by differences in loss aversion.
Keywords:
loss aversion; decision making under uncertainty; multiple choice;
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Discussion Paper No. 181
Does Experience Shape Subjective Expectations?
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This paper documents that individuals' expectations about macroeconomic outcomes are systematically linked with the experiences of these macroeconomic outcomes they have made during life. Focusing on expectations about national inflation, national unemployment and national business conditions, I measure individual-specific experiences as weighted averages of these variables over the respondents' lifetime, respectively. I find that experience significantly predicts respondents' expectations in each of these domains and show that individuals generally put more weight on recent rather than distant years when aggregating past information. The empirical model also allows for heterogeneity with respect to observed socio-economic characteristics. The estimates suggest the existence of a gender effect. Compared to females, males put relatively more weight on distant years when aggregating past information, and the association between expectations and past experiences is generally weaker for men.
Keywords:
expectations; experience; inflation; unemployment; business conditions;
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Discussion Paper No. 160
November 8, 2021
Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations
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Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals' response behavior and inflation expectations.
Keywords:
uncertainty; inflation; expectations; mixture models;
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Discussion Paper No. 159
Magnitude Effect in Intertemporal Allocation Tasks
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We investigate how intertemporal allocation of monetary rewards is influenced by the size of total budget, with a particular interest in the channels of influence. We find a significant magnitude effect: the budget share allocated to the later date increases with the size of the budget. At the aggregate level as well as at the individual level, we find magnitude effects both on the discount rate and on intertemporal substitutability (i.e. utility curvature). The latter effect is consistent with theories in which the degree of asset integration is increasing in the stake.
Keywords:
time preference; magnitude effect; convex time budget method;
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Discussion Paper No. 157
Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations
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Between 2004 and 2016, we elicited individuals' subjective expectations of stock market returns in a Dutch internet panel at bi-annual intervals. In this paper, we develop a panel data model with a finite mixture of expectation types who differ in how they use past stock market returns to form current stock market expectations. The model allows for rounding in the probabilistic responses and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity at several levels. We estimate the type distribution in the population and find evidence for considerable heterogeneity in expectation types and meaningful variation over time, in particular during the financial crisis of 2008/09.
Keywords:
expectations; stock markets; financial crisis; mixture models; surveys;
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