Discussion Paper No. 386
February 27, 2023
Measuring Preferences Over Intertemporal Profiles
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Abstract:
Growing evidence indicates that utility over time is different from utility under risk. Hence, measuring intertemporal preferences (discounting and utility) exclusively from intertemporal choices is desirable. We develop a simple method for measuring intertemporal preferences. It is parameter-free in both discounting and utility, and allows a wider range of models to be measured than preceding methods. It is easy to implement, clear to subjects, incentive compatible, and does not require more measurements than existing methods if identical assumptions are imposed. In an experiment, we illustrate how the method can be used to test recent models with unconventional assumptions non-parametrically.
Keywords:
measuring time preferences; intertemporal profile; parameter-free;
JEL-Classification:
C91; D12; D91;
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Discussion Paper No. 381
February 8, 2023
Cognitive Ability and Perceived Disagreement in Learning
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Abstract:
Do agents believe to be agreeing more with others in the long-run? This paper designs an experiment to study how cognitive abilities affect actual and perceived disagreement in a standard sequential belief updating task with public signals. We document a persistent gap in the perception of disagreement as a function of cognitive ability. Higher cognitive ability is associated with less perceived disagreement, although the average subject underestimates the extent of actual disagreement regardless of cognitive ability. Learning about the state of the world has little effect on the evolution of perceived disagreement when controlling for cognitive ability. Providing subjects with information about their partner’s cognitive ability affects perceived disagreement only when the partner is less cognitively able.
Keywords:
cognitive ability; disagreement; learning;
JEL-Classification:
C90; D83; D89;
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Discussion Paper No. 333
August 15, 2022
The Dynamics of Behavioral Responses During a Crisis
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This paper investigates the dynamics of behavioral changes during a crisis. We study this in the context of the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, where behavioral responses were important in mitigating the costs of the pandemic. To identify behavioral responses to unanticipated and transient health risk shocks, we combine high-frequency cellphone mobility data with detailed incidence data in Germany. Using an event-study design on local outbreaks, we find that county-level mobility immediately and significantly decreased by about 2.5% in response to an outbreak independent of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We also find that the reproduction rate decreased by about 17% in response to a local outbreak. Both behavioral responses are quite persistent even after the relative health risk has dissipated. By the time of the second wave, the behavioral response to a second or third shock is small or negligible. Our results demonstrate the importance of (1) integrating behavioral persistence in models used to study behavior and policies that change behavior, (2) the effectiveness of policies that provide high-frequency localized information on health risks, and (3) the potential persistence of behavioral changes after the Covid-19 pandemic has passed.
Keywords:
dynamics; behavioral response; crisis; covid-19;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 284
November 10, 2021
Preferences over Taxation of High-Income Individuals: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
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Abstract:
Mobility of high-income individuals across borders puts pressure on governments to lower taxes. A central tenet of the corresponding textbook argument is that mobile individuals react to tax differentials through migra- tion, and in turn immobile individuals vote for lower taxes. We investigate to which extent this argument is complete. In particular, political ideology may influence voting on taxes. We vary mobility and foreign taxes in a survey experiment within the German Internet Panel (GIP), with more than 3,000 individuals participating. We find that while the treatment effects qualitatively confirm model predictions how voters take mobility of high-income earners into account when choosing domestic taxes, ideology matters: left-leaning high-income individuals choose higher taxes and emigrate less frequently than right-leaning ones. These findings are in line with the comparative- static predictions of a simple model of inequality aversion when the aversion parameters vary with ideology.
Keywords:
taxation; mobility; ideology; survey experiments;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 269
Signaling Motives in Lying Games
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Abstract:
This paper studies the implications of agents signaling their moral type in a lying game. In the theoretical analysis, a signaling motive emerges where agents dislike being suspected of lying and where some types of liars are more stigmatized than others. The equilibrium prediction of the model can explain experimental data from previous studies, in particular on partial lying, where some agents dishonestly report a non payoff-maximizing report. I discuss the relationship with previous theoretical models of lying that conceptualize the image concern as an aversion to being suspected of lying. The second half of the paper tests the theoretical predictions in an experiment. In contrast to previous literature, the experimental results show no evidence that image concerns influence lying behavior in the laboratory.
Keywords:
lying; image concerns; honesty; experiment;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 253
November 9, 2021
Face Masks Increase Compliance with Physical Distancing Recommendations during the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Governments across the world have implemented restrictive policies to slow the spread of COVID-19. Recommended face mask use has been a controversially discussed policy, among others, due to potential adverse effects on physical distancing. Using a randomized field experiment (N=300), we show that individuals keep a significantly larger distance from someone wearing a face mask than from an unmasked person. According to an additional survey experiment (N=456), masked individuals are not perceived as being more infectious than unmasked ones, but they are believed to prefer more distancing. This result suggests that, in times where mask use is voluntary, wearing a mask serves as a social signal for a preferred greater distance that is respected by others. Our findings provide strong evidence against the claim that mask use creates a false sense of security that would negatively affect physical distancing.
Keywords:
COVID-19; health policy; compliance; face masks; risk compensation; field experiment;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 239
Starke Erwartungsreaktionen auf Angela Merkels Covid-Erklärungen
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Abstract:
Wir führen hochfrequente Befragungen der in Deutschland lebenden Personen durch und erheben die Erwartungen zur Dauer der Covid-bedingten Beschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens. In einer ersten Analyse der Daten finden wir Hinweise, dass zwei in den Erhebungszeitraum fallenden öffentlichen Auftritte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel die Erwartungen stark beeinflussen. Insbesondere messen wir nach Merkels Pressekonferenz vom 15.4.2020 eine deutlich pessimistische Bewegung der Erwartungen und die beabsichtigten Konsumausgaben der Haushalte sinken zeitgleich. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die deutsche Politik über die Möglichkeit eines sehr wirksamen Erwartungsmanagements verfügt.
Keywords:
ökonomische Erwartungen; Covid-Shutdown;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 237
Second-Chance Offers and Buyer Reputation: Theory and Evidence on Auctions with Default
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Winners in online auctions frequently fail to complete purchases. Major auction platforms therefore allow “second-chance” offers, where the runner-up bidder pays his own bid price, and they let sellers leave negative feedback on buyers who default. We show theoretically that (i) all else equal, the availability of second-chance offers reduces bids; (ii) sellers have no incentive to exclude bidders, even if they are nearly certain to default; (iii) buyer reputation systems reward bidders with a reputation for defaulting, counter to the idea of deterring such behavior. Our auction experiments support these predictions and provide insights on their practical relevance.
Keywords:
auctions; default; reputation; second-chance offers;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 236
Politically Feasible Reforms of Non-Linear Tax System
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We study reforms of non-linear income tax systems from a political economy perspective. We present a median voter theorem for monotonic tax reforms, reforms so that the change in the tax burden is a monotonic function of income. We also provide an empirical analysis of tax reforms, with a focus on the US. We show that past reforms have, by and large, been monotonic. We also show that support by the median voter was aligned with majority support in the population. Finally, we develop sufficient statistics that enable to test whether a given tax system admits a politically feasible reform.
Keywords:
non-linear income taxation; tax reforms; political economy; optimal taxation;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 235
Inducing Cooperation with Emotion - Who Is Affected?
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Abstract:
We study the effects of dual processing differences that arise from the state level (through experimental manipulation of the decision mode), the trait level (using individual difference measures of the decision mode), and their interaction on cooperative behavior. In a survey experiment with a representative sample of the Swedish population (N = 1,828), we elicited the individuals’ primary decision mode and experimentally varied whether individuals could rely on their preferred mode or were induced to rely either on emotion or reason. Cooperation was measured across a series of commonly used and incentivized games (prisoner’s dilemma game, public goods game, trust game, dictator game). At the state level, our results show that average cooperation rates increased when emotions were induced rather than reason. At the trait level, our results show that individual decision modes and cooperation rates were not correlated when subjects could rely on their primary mode, but traits interacted with our processing manipulation: Experimentally inducing emotions increased cooperation among individuals who otherwise rely primarily on reason, but not among individuals who already rely primarily on emotion. These findings suggest that individuals integrate their traits with emotion-based states by substituting their trait rather than enhancing it. Thus, who is affected by emotions in their decision to cooperate crucially depends on state-trait interactions at the point of decision.
Keywords:
cooperation; intuition; emotion; reason; experiment;
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