Discussion Paper No. 155
November 8, 2021
The Disciplinary Effect of Post-Grant Review
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We study the causal impact of invalidating marginally valid patents during post-grant opposition at the European Patent Office on affected inventors' subsequent patenting. We exploit exogenous variation in invalidation by leveraging the participation of a patent's original examiner in the opposition division as an instrument. We find a disciplinary effect of invalidation: Affected inventors file 20% fewer patent applications in the decade after the decision. This effect is entirely driven by a reduction in low-quality filings, i.e., filings that examiners associate with prior art that threatens the application's novelty or inventive step. We do not observe shifts into national patenting.
Keywords:
inventors; marginal patents; patent invalidation; patent opposition; postgrant review; epo; innovation;
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Discussion Paper No. 156
Explaining Gaps in Educational Transitions Between Migrant and Native School Leavers
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This paper analyzes the reasons for the large and persistent gaps in transitions after secondary school between native pupils compared to second- and third generation immigrant pupils in Germany. I first document that differences in parental background, skills (such as school degrees or test scores), and school fixed effects explain part of the migrant-native gaps, but are not sufficient. Conditional on these factors, there is a "polarization" of educational choices: migrants are more likely to attend tertiary education, less likely to attend vocational education, and more likely to end without qualified training than their background and skills would predict. I then show that this polarization is driven by the migrant pupils' more academically oriented career aspirations and expectations before leaving school. On the one hand, these higher ambitions allow higher skilled migrants to hieventertiary education despite their less favourable background characteristics. On the other hand, less skilled migrants who in Germany's tracked school system do not have the option to enter academic education, may be diverted from vocational training as a more viable alternative. These patterns are stronger for boys than for girls. Finally, I discuss various possible explanations for the migrants' different career plans, including expected labour market returns to education, expected discrimination, the intention to leave Germany, overconfidence, or information deficits.
Keywords:
migrant youth; vocational education; tertiary education; aspirations; expectations;
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Discussion Paper No. 154
An Experimental Analysis of Overconfidence in Tariff Choice
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Digitalization has changed existing business models and enabled new ones. This development has been accompanied by the emergence of new pricing options and the possibility of applying established pricing models in new domains. Today, consumers can, for example, pay for accessing a product instead of buying it. Within such sharing services, consumers can usually choose between a flat-rate and a pay-per-use option. Prior work demonstrated that consumers' tariff choices are often systematically biased. Overconfidence was identified as one of the key drivers. Yet, prior research is non-experimental and focused on the so-called flat-rate bias. By contrast, we examine the effects of overconfidence on tariff choice experimentally. We show that overconfident consumers overestimate their ability to predict their future usage, which leads them to underestimate their actual usage, and eventually leads them to choose a pay-per-use (vs. a flat-rate) option more frequently. We discuss theoretical and managerial implications.
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Discussion Paper No. 153
Experiments on Matching Markets: A Survey
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The paper surveys the experimental literature on matching markets. It covers house allocation, school choice, and two-sided matching markets such as college admissions. The main focus of the survey is on truth-telling and strategic manipulations by the agents, on the stability and efficiency of the matching outcome, as well as on the distribution of utility.
Keywords:
C92; D47; D83;
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Discussion Paper No. 152
Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence Income Expectations and Consumer Indebtedness
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This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. In a lab experiment, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate income expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. We successfully generate biased income expectations and show that participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after feedback. However, at the end of the experiment they remain with higher debt levels, which represent real financial losses. To assess the external validity, we nd further evidence for the link between overcondence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey (GSOEP-IS).
Keywords:
consumption; borrowing; overconfidence; income expectations;
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Discussion Paper No. 151
Obviousness Around the Clock
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Li (2017) supports his theoretical notion of obviousness of a dominant strategy with experimental evidence that bidding is closer to dominance in the dynamic ascending-clock than the static second-price auction (private values). We replicate his experimental study and add three intermediate auction formats to decompose this behavioral improvement into cumulative effects of (1) seeing an ascending-price clock (after bid submission), (2) bidding dynamically on the clock and (3) getting drop-out information. Li's theory predicts dominance to become obvious through (2) dynamic bidding. We find no significant behavioral effect of (2). However, both (1) and (3) are highly significant.
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Discussion Paper No. 150
Effects of Timing and Reference Frame of Feedback
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Information about past performance has been found to sometimes improve and sometimes worsen subsequent performance. Two factors may help to explain this puzzle: which aspect of one's past performance the information refers to and when it is revealed. In a field experiment in secondary schools, students received information about their absolute rank in the last math exam (level feedback), their change in ranks between the second-last and the last math exam (change feedback), or no feedback. Feedback was given either 1-3 days (early) or immediately (late) before the final math exam of the semester. Both level feedback and change feedback significantly improve students' grades in the final exam when given early and tend to worsen them when given late. The largest effects are found for negative change feedback and are concentrated on male students, who adjust their ability beliefs downwards in response to feedback.
Keywords:
timing of feedback; type of feedback; beliefs; education; field experiment;
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Discussion Paper No. 149
Do Party Positions Affect the Public's Policy Preferences?
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The standard assumption of exogenous policy preferences implies that parties set their positions according to their voters' preferences. We investigate the reverse effect: Are the electorates' policy preferences responsive to party positions? In a representative German survey, we inform randomized treatment groups about the positions of political parties on two family policies, child care subsidy and universal student aid. In both experiments, results show that the treatment aligns the preferences of specific partisan groups with their preferred party's position on the policy under consideration, implying endogeneity of policy preferences. The information treatment also affects non-partisan swing voters.
Keywords:
political parties; partisanship; survey experiment; information; endogenous preferences; voters; family policy;
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Discussion Paper No. 148
Peer Effects of Ambition
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Ambition as the desire for personal achievement is an important driver of behavior. Using laboratory experiments, we study the role of social influence on ambition in two distinct domains of achievement, namely performance goals and task complexity. In the first case, participants set themselves a performance goal for a task they have to work on. The goal is associated with a proportional bonus that is added to a piece rate if the goal is reached. In the second case, they choose the complexity of the task, which is positively associated with the piece rate compensation and effort. In both cases we test whether observing peer choices influences own choices. We find strong evidence of peer effects on performance goals. In contrast, we find no support for peer effects on the choice of task complexity.
Keywords:
peer effects; ambition; goal setting; task difficulty; laboratory experiment;
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Discussion Paper No. 147
Metric and Scale Effects in Consumer Preferences for Environmental Benefits
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The present study investigates how the framing of information on the environmental impact of vehicles affects consumers’ preferences for identical improvements in carquality. In online choice experiments, the effects of two metrics (fuel consumption vs. CO2 emissions) and three scales of one metric (CO2 in kg/km vs. g/km vs. g/100km) are examined. First, from a technical perspective, fuel consumption (FC) and CO2 emissions are linearly connected by a constant factor and are thus isomorphic indescribing the environmental friendliness of a car. Second, rescaling identical informa-tion should not change consumer decisions. However, as this study demonstrates, the type of information presented to consumers significantly affects consumers’ valuation of environmental benefits from a reduction in FC or CO2. The study’s contribution lies in quantifying the differences in consumers’ preferences for two measures of the same information that have not been previously directly compared. Additionally, the differences in the framing effects are explored for diesel and gasoline vehicles. The estimation accounts for heterogeneity in the tastes, environmental attitudes and knowledge of the respondents. The insights of this study serve to guide policy makers and carmanufacturers on how to present information on car offers.
Keywords:
choice architecture; environmental impact; framing effects; vehicle choice;
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