Discussion Paper No. 168
November 8, 2021
Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation Using Convex Time Budgets
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We examine 220 estimates of the present-bias parameter from 28 articles using the Convex Time Budget protocol. The literature shows that people are on average present biased, but the estimates exhibit substantial heterogeneity across studies. There is evidence of modest selective reporting in the direction of overreporting present-bias. The primary source of the heterogeneity is the type of reward, either monetary or non-monetary reward, but the effect is weakened after correcting for potential selective reporting. In the studies using the monetary reward, the delay until the issue of the reward associated with the "current" time period is shown to influence the estimates of present bias parameter.
Keywords:
present bias; structural behavioral economics; meta-analysis; selective reporting;
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Discussion Paper No. 167
The Formation of Prosociality: Causal Evidence on the Role of Social Environment
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This study presents descriptive and causal evidence on the role of social environment for the formation of prosociality. In a first step, we show that socio-economic status (SES) as well as the intensity of mother-child interaction and mothers' prosocial attitudes are systematically related to elementary school children's prosociality. In a second step, we present evidence on a randomly-assigned variation of the social environment, providing children with a mentor for the duration of one year. Our data include a two-year follow-up and reveal a significant and persistent increase in prosociality in the treatment relative to the control group. Moreover, enriching the social environment bears the potential to close the observed gap in prosociality between low and high SES children. A mediation analysis of the observed treatment effect suggests that prosociality develops in response to stimuli in the form of prosocial role models and intense social interactions.
Keywords:
formation of preferences; prosociality; social preferences; trust; social inequality;
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Discussion Paper No. 166
Socio-Economic Status and Inequalities in Children's IQ and Economic Preferences
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This paper explores inequalities in IQ and economic preferences between children from high and low socio-economic status (SES) families. We document that children from high SES families are more intelligent, patient and altruistic, as well as less risk-seeking. To understand the underlying causes and mechanisms, we propose a framework of how parental investments as well as maternal IQ and economic preferences influence a child's IQ and preferences. Within this framework, we allow SES to influence both the level of parental time and parenting style investments, as well as the productivity of the investment process. Our results indicate that disparities in the level of parental investments hold substantial importance for SES gaps in economic preferences and, to a lesser extent, IQ. In light of the importance of IQ and preferences for behaviors and outcomes, our findings offer an explanation for social immobility
Keywords:
socio-economic status; time preferences; risk preferences; altruism; experiments with children; origins of preferences; human capital;
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Discussion Paper No. 165
Trade Exposure and the Decline in Collective Bargaining: Evidence from Germany
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We analyze the effect of the increase in trade exposure induced by the rise of China and the transformation of Eastern Europe on collective bargaining coverage of German plants in the period 1996-2008. We exploit cross-industry variation in trade exposure and use trade flows of other high-income countries as instruments for German trade exposure. We find that increased import exposure has led to an increase in the probability of German plants leaving industry-wide bargaining agreements, accounting for about one fifth of the overall decline in the German manufacturing sector. The effect is most pronounced for small and medium-sized plants.
Keywords:
international trade; import competition; collective bargaining;
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Discussion Paper No. 164
An Economic Model of the Meat Paradox
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Many individuals have empathetic feelings towards animals but frequently consume meat. We investigate this "meat paradox" using insights from the literature on motivated reasoning in moral dilemmata. We develop a model where individuals form self-serving beliefs about the suffering of animals caused by meat consumption in order to alleviate the guilt associated with their dietary choices. The model makes several specific predictions: in particular, it predicts a positive relationship between individuals' taste for meat and their propensity to engage in self-deception, a high price elasticity of demand for meat, and a causal effect of prices and aggregate consumption on individual beliefs.
Keywords:
motivated reasoning; moral dilemmata; self-deception; meat paradox; meat price-elasticity; animal welfare;
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Discussion Paper No. 163
Firm Organization with Multiple Establishments
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How do geographic frictions affect firm organization? We show theoretically and empirically that geographic frictions increase the use of middle managers in multi-establishment firms. In our model, we assume that a CEO's time is a resource in limited supply, shared across headquarters and establishments. Geographic frictions increase the costs of accessing the CEO. Hiring middle managers at one establishment substitutes for CEO time, which is reallocated across all establishments. Consequently, geographic frictions between the headquarters and one establishment affect the organization of all establishments of a firm. Our model is consistent with novel facts about multi-establishment firm organization that we document using administrative data from Germany. We exploit the opening of high-speed train routes to show that not only the establishments directly affected by faster travel times but also the other establishments of the firm adjust their organization. Our findings imply that local conditions propagate across space through firm organization.
Keywords:
firm organization; multi-establishment firm; knowledge hierarchy; geography;
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Discussion Paper No. 162
Heads We Both Win, Tails Only You Lose: the Effect of Limited Liability on Risk-Taking in Financial Decision Making
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One of the reasons for the recent crisis is that financial institutions took "too much risk" (Brunnermeier, 2009; Taylor et al., 2010). Why were these institutions taking so much risk is an open question. A recent strand in the literature points towards the "cognitive dissonance" of investors who, because of the limited liability of their investments, had a distorted view of riskiness (e.g., Barberis (2013); Benabou (2015)). In a series of laboratory experiments we show how limited liability does not affect the beliefs of investors, but does increase their willing exposure to risk. This results points to a simple explanation for the over-investment of banks and hedge-funds: When incentives are not aligned, investors take advantage of the moral hazard opportunities.
Keywords:
moral hazard; cognitive dissonance; behavioral finance;
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Discussion Paper No. 161
Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence
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Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial markets and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset market bubbles. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, "static" personality trait. In this paper we introduce a novel experimental design which allows us to track different measures of overconfidence during an asset market bubble. The results show that overconfidence co-moves with asset prices and points towards a feedback loop in which overconfidence adds fuel to the flame of existing bubbles.
Keywords:
overconfidence; experiment; asset markets;
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Discussion Paper No. 160
Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations
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Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals' response behavior and inflation expectations.
Keywords:
uncertainty; inflation; expectations; mixture models;
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Discussion Paper No. 159
Magnitude Effect in Intertemporal Allocation Tasks
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We investigate how intertemporal allocation of monetary rewards is influenced by the size of total budget, with a particular interest in the channels of influence. We find a significant magnitude effect: the budget share allocated to the later date increases with the size of the budget. At the aggregate level as well as at the individual level, we find magnitude effects both on the discount rate and on intertemporal substitutability (i.e. utility curvature). The latter effect is consistent with theories in which the degree of asset integration is increasing in the stake.
Keywords:
time preference; magnitude effect; convex time budget method;
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