Discussion Paper No. 422
September 11, 2023
Bit by Bit: Colocation and the Death of Distance in Software Developer Networks
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Abstract:
Digital work settings potentially facilitate remote collaboration and thereby decrease geographic frictions in knowledge work. Here, I analyze spatial collaboration patterns of some 191 thousand software developers in the United States on the largest code repository platform GitHub. Despite advanced digitization in this occupation, developers are geographically highly concentrated, with 79.8% of users clustering in only ten economic areas, and colocated developers collaborate about nine times as much as non-colocated developers. However, the colocation effect is much smaller than in less digital social or inventor networks, and apart from colocation geographic distance is of little relevance to collaboration. This suggests distance is indeed less important for collaboration in a digital work setting while other strong drivers of geographic concentration remain. Heterogeneity analyses provide insights on which types of collaboration tend to colocate: the colocation effect is smaller within larger organizations, for high-quality projects, among experienced developers, and for sporadic interactions. Overall, this results in a smaller colocation effect in larger economic areas.
Keywords:
geography; digitalization; networks; knowledge economy; colocation;
JEL-Classification:
L84; O18; O30; R32;
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Discussion Paper No. 421
Automation and Polarization
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Abstract:
We develop an assignment model of automation. Each of a continuum of tasks of variable complexity is assigned to either capital or one of a continuum of labor skills. We characterize conditions for interior automation, whereby tasks of intermediate complexity are assigned to capital. Interior automation arises when the most skilled workers have a comparative advantage in the most complex tasks relative to capital, and because the wages of the least skilled workers are sufficiently low relative to their productivity and the effective cost of capital in low-complexity tasks. Minimum wages and other sources of higher wages at the bottom make interior automation less likely. Starting with interior automation, a reduction in the cost of capital (or an increase in capital productivity) causes employment and wage polarization. Specifically, further automation pushes workers into tasks at the lower and upper ends of the task distribution. It also monotonically increases the skill premium above a skill threshold and reduces the skill premium below this threshold. Moreover, automation tends to reduce the real wage of workers with comparative advantage profiles close to that of capital. We show that large enough increases in capital productivity ultimately induce a transition to low-skill automation and qualitatively alter the effects of automation - thereafter inducing monotone increases in skill premia rather than wage polarization.
Keywords:
assignment; automation; inequality; polarization; tasks; wages;
JEL-Classification:
J23; J31; O33;
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Discussion Paper No. 420
August 31, 2023
Redistributive Income Taxation with Directed Technical Change
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Abstract:
What are the implications of (endogenous) directed technical change for the design of redistributive income taxes? I study this question in a Mirrleesian economy augmented to include endogenous technology development and adoption choices by firms. Under certain conditions, any progressive tax reform induces technical change that compresses the pre-tax wage distribution. The key intuition is that progressive tax reforms tend to increase labor supply of less skilled relative to more skilled workers, which induces firms to develop and use technologies that are more complementary to the less skilled. These directed technical change effects make the optimal tax scheme more progressive, raising marginal tax rates at the right tail of the income distribution and lowering them at the left tail. For reasonable calibrations, the impact of directed technical change on the optimal tax is quantitatively important: optimal marginal tax rates are reduced substantially for incomes below the median and increase monotonically over the bulk of the income distribution instead of being U-shaped (as in most of the previous literature).
Keywords:
optimal taxation; directed technical change; endogenous technical change; wage inequality;
JEL-Classification:
H21; H23; H24; J31; O33;
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Discussion Paper No. 419
August 25, 2023
Allegations of Sexual Misconduct, Accused Scientists, and Their Research
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Does the scientific community sanction sexual misconduct? Using a sample of scientists accused of sexual misconduct at US universities, we find that their prior work is cited less after allegations surface. The effect weakens with distance in the coauthorship network, indicating that researchers learn about allegations through their peers. Among the closest peers, male authors react more strongly, suggesting that they feel a greater need to disassociate themselves from the accused. In male-dominated fields, the effects on citations are more muted. Accused scientists are more likely to leave academic research, to move to non-university institutions, and to publish less.
Keywords:
sexual misconduct; scientific community; scientific impact;
JEL-Classification:
J16; M14; I23; K4;
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Discussion Paper No. 418
Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US
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Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the large structural shocks -- automation and import competition -- on voter turnout during US federal elections from 2000 to 2016. Although the negative income effect of both shocks is comparable, we find that political participation decreases significantly in counties more exposed to industrial robots. In contrast, the exposure to rising import competition does not reduce voter turnout. A survey experiment reveals that divergent beliefs about the effectiveness of government intervention drive this contrast. Our study highlights the role of beliefs in the political economy of technological change.
Keywords:
automation; trade; labor demand; voter turnout;
JEL-Classification:
D72; J23; F16;
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Discussion Paper No. 417
August 23, 2023
The Behavioral Additionality of Government Research Grants
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There are different forms of public support for industrial R&D. Some attempt to increase innovation by prompting firms to undertake more challenging projects than they would otherwise do. Access to a dataset from one such program, the Austrian Research Promotion Agency, allows me to examine the effect of research grants on firms' patenting outcomes. My estimates suggest that a government research grant increases the propensity to file a patent application with the European Patent Office by around 12 percentage points. Stronger effects appear for more experienced firms of advanced age. Additional evidence indicates that grants induce experienced firms to develop unconventional patents and patents that draw on knowledge novel to the firm. I interpret the findings in a "exploration vs. exploitation" model, in which grants are targeted at ambitious projects that face internal competition from more conventional projects within firms. The model shows that this mechanism is more salient in experienced firms, leading to a stronger response in behavior for this group of firms.
Keywords:
JEL-Classification:
O38;
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Discussion Paper No. 416
August 10, 2023
Complementing Business Training with Access to Finance: Evidence from SMEs in Kenya
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Abstract:
In this paper, we study the complementarity between business training and access to financial capital for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya. All participants in a business training program are offered training. One-third of participants are offered loans immediately after training (Concurrent Loan group), one-third are offered loans six weeks after training (Delayed Loan group), and the remaining third are offered loans after another four weeks (Control group). While a long delay between training and loans may reduce knowledge retention and application by SMEs in the presence of complementarity, concurrent access to loans and associated business spending may crowd out the entrepreneurs' attention from improving business practices. We find evidence for the latter in both intention-to-treat and treatment-on-the-treated estimates. While SMEs in both Control and Delayed Loan groups improve their business practices, SMEs in the Concurrent Loan group who take loans do not improve their practices at all. Moreover, entrepreneurs who take loans spend less time on their businesses and their business revenue falls. Our evidence is consistent with the entrepreneurs in our study using loans to substitute for their income.
Keywords:
business training; access to finance;
JEL-Classification:
O12; L26; M53;
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Discussion Paper No. 415
Whom to Inform about Prices? Evidence from the German Fuel Market
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Combining a theoretical model of imperfect information with empirical evidence, we show how the effect of providing price information to consumers depends on how well informed they are beforehand. Theoretically, an increase in consumer information decreases prices more, the fewer ex ante informed consumers there are. Empirically, we study mandatory price disclosure in the German fuel market for two fuel types that differ in ex ante consumer information. The decline in prices is stronger when there are fewer ex ante informed consumers. The magnitude of the treatment effect declines over time but is intensified by local follow-on information campaigns.
Keywords:
mandatory price disclosure; consumer information; retail fuel market;
JEL-Classification:
D83; L41;
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Discussion Paper No. 414
Imperfect Price Information, Market Power, and Tax Pass-Through
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Abstract:
Pass-through determines how consumers respond to taxes. We investigate the impact of imperfect price information on pass-through of commodity taxes. Our theoretical model predicts that the pass-through rate increases with the share of well-informed consumers. Pass-through is higher for the minimum price, paid by well-informed consumers, than for the average price, paid by uninformed consumers. Moreover, pass-through to the average price is non-monotonic with respect to the number of sellers. An empirical analysis of multiple recent tax changes in the German and French retail fuel markets confirms our theoretical predictions. Our results have implications for tax policy and shed light on the relative effectiveness of Pigouvian taxes versus regulation.
Keywords:
pass-through ; taxes; imperfect information; competition;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 413
Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry
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Abstract:
Policy choices often entail trade-offs between workers and consumers. I assess how foreign competition changes the consumer welfare and domestic employment effects of a merger. I construct a model accounting for demand responses, endogenous product portfolios, and employment. I apply this model to the acquisition of Maytag by Whirlpool in the household appliance industry. I compare the observed acquisition to one with a foreign buyer. While a Whirlpool acquisition decreased consumer welfare by $250 million, it led to 1,300 fewer domestic jobs lost. Jobs need to be worth above $220,000 annually for domestic employment effects to offset consumer harm.
Keywords:
JEL-Classification:
F61; L13; L40;