Discussion Paper No. 418
August 25, 2023
Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US
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Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the large structural shocks -- automation and import competition -- on voter turnout during US federal elections from 2000 to 2016. Although the negative income effect of both shocks is comparable, we find that political participation decreases significantly in counties more exposed to industrial robots. In contrast, the exposure to rising import competition does not reduce voter turnout. A survey experiment reveals that divergent beliefs about the effectiveness of government intervention drive this contrast. Our study highlights the role of beliefs in the political economy of technological change.
Keywords:
automation; trade; labor demand; voter turnout;
JEL-Classification:
D72; J23; F16;
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Discussion Paper No. 417
August 23, 2023
The Behavioral Additionality of Government Research Grants
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Abstract:
There are different forms of public support for industrial R&D. Some attempt to increase innovation by prompting firms to undertake more challenging projects than they would otherwise do. Access to a dataset from one such program, the Austrian Research Promotion Agency, allows me to examine the effect of research grants on firms' patenting outcomes. My estimates suggest that a government research grant increases the propensity to file a patent application with the European Patent Office by around 12 percentage points. Stronger effects appear for more experienced firms of advanced age. Additional evidence indicates that grants induce experienced firms to develop unconventional patents and patents that draw on knowledge novel to the firm. I interpret the findings in a "exploration vs. exploitation" model, in which grants are targeted at ambitious projects that face internal competition from more conventional projects within firms. The model shows that this mechanism is more salient in experienced firms, leading to a stronger response in behavior for this group of firms.
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JEL-Classification:
O38;
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Discussion Paper No. 416
August 10, 2023
Complementing Business Training with Access to Finance: Evidence from SMEs in Kenya
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In this paper, we study the complementarity between business training and access to financial capital for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya. All participants in a business training program are offered training. One-third of participants are offered loans immediately after training (Concurrent Loan group), one-third are offered loans six weeks after training (Delayed Loan group), and the remaining third are offered loans after another four weeks (Control group). While a long delay between training and loans may reduce knowledge retention and application by SMEs in the presence of complementarity, concurrent access to loans and associated business spending may crowd out the entrepreneurs' attention from improving business practices. We find evidence for the latter in both intention-to-treat and treatment-on-the-treated estimates. While SMEs in both Control and Delayed Loan groups improve their business practices, SMEs in the Concurrent Loan group who take loans do not improve their practices at all. Moreover, entrepreneurs who take loans spend less time on their businesses and their business revenue falls. Our evidence is consistent with the entrepreneurs in our study using loans to substitute for their income.
Keywords:
business training; access to finance;
JEL-Classification:
O12; L26; M53;
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Discussion Paper No. 415
Whom to Inform about Prices? Evidence from the German Fuel Market
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Combining a theoretical model of imperfect information with empirical evidence, we show how the effect of providing price information to consumers depends on how well informed they are beforehand. Theoretically, an increase in consumer information decreases prices more, the fewer ex ante informed consumers there are. Empirically, we study mandatory price disclosure in the German fuel market for two fuel types that differ in ex ante consumer information. The decline in prices is stronger when there are fewer ex ante informed consumers. The magnitude of the treatment effect declines over time but is intensified by local follow-on information campaigns.
Keywords:
mandatory price disclosure; consumer information; retail fuel market;
JEL-Classification:
D83; L41;
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Discussion Paper No. 414
Imperfect Price Information, Market Power, and Tax Pass-Through
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Abstract:
Pass-through determines how consumers respond to taxes. We investigate the impact of imperfect price information on pass-through of commodity taxes. Our theoretical model predicts that the pass-through rate increases with the share of well-informed consumers. Pass-through is higher for the minimum price, paid by well-informed consumers, than for the average price, paid by uninformed consumers. Moreover, pass-through to the average price is non-monotonic with respect to the number of sellers. An empirical analysis of multiple recent tax changes in the German and French retail fuel markets confirms our theoretical predictions. Our results have implications for tax policy and shed light on the relative effectiveness of Pigouvian taxes versus regulation.
Keywords:
pass-through ; taxes; imperfect information; competition;
JEL-Classification:
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Discussion Paper No. 413
Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry
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Policy choices often entail trade-offs between workers and consumers. I assess how foreign competition changes the consumer welfare and domestic employment effects of a merger. I construct a model accounting for demand responses, endogenous product portfolios, and employment. I apply this model to the acquisition of Maytag by Whirlpool in the household appliance industry. I compare the observed acquisition to one with a foreign buyer. While a Whirlpool acquisition decreased consumer welfare by $250 million, it led to 1,300 fewer domestic jobs lost. Jobs need to be worth above $220,000 annually for domestic employment effects to offset consumer harm.
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JEL-Classification:
F61; L13; L40;
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Discussion Paper No. 412
August 5, 2023
Employee Performance and Mental Well-Being: The Mitigating Effects of Transformational Leadership during Crisis
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The positive role of transformational leadership on productivity and mental wellbeing has long been established. Transformational leadership behavior may be particularly suited to navigate times of crisis which are characterized by high levels of complexity and uncertainty. We exploit quasi-random assignment of employees to managers and study the role of frontline managers’ leadership styles on employees’ performance, work style, and mental well-being in times of crisis. Using longitudinal administrative data and panel survey data from before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, we find that frontline managers who were perceived as having a more transformational leadership style before the onset of the pandemic, lead employees to better performance and mental well-being during the pandemic.
Keywords:
leadership; frontline managers; labor-management relations; organizational behavior;
JEL-Classification:
M54; M12; J53;
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Discussion Paper No. 411
July 28, 2023
Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply
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Abstract:
Wage growth occurs almost exclusively in full-time work, whereas it is close to zero in part-time work. German women, when asked to predict their own potential wage outcomes, show severely biased expectations with strong over-optimism about the returns to part-time experience. We estimate a structural life-cycle model to quantify how beliefs influence labor supply, earnings and welfare over the life cycle. The bias increases part-time employment strongly, induces flatter long-run wage profiles, and substantially influences the employment effects of a widely discussed policy reform, the introduction of joint taxation. The most significant impact of the bias appears for college-educated women.
Keywords:
returns to experience; biased beliefs; part-time work; dynamic life-cycle models; ;
JEL-Classification:
D63; H23; I24; I38; J22; J31;
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Discussion Paper No. 410
July 18, 2023
Does Unfairness Hurt Women? The Effects of Losing Unfair Competitions
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How do men and women differ in their persistence after experiencing failure in a competitive environment? We tackle this question by combining a large online experiment (N=2,086) with machine learning. We find that when losing is unequivocally due to merit, both men and women exhibit a significant decrease in subsequent tournament entry. However, when the prior tournament is unfair, i.e., a loss is no longer necessarily based on merit, women are more discouraged than men. These results suggest that transparent meritocratic criteria may play a key role in preventing women from falling behind after experiencing a loss.
Keywords:
competitiveness; gender; fairness; machine learning; online experiment;
JEL-Classification:
C90; D91; J16; C14;
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Discussion Paper No. 409
July 5, 2023
(Dis)honesty and the Value of Transparency for Campaign Promises
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Promise competition is prevalent in many economic environments, but promise keeping is often difficult to observe. We study the value of transparency for promise competition and ask whether promises still offer an opportunity to honor future obligations when outcomes do not allow for observing promise keeping. Focusing on campaign promises, we show theoretically how preferences for truth-telling shape promise competition when promise keeping can(not) be observed and identify the causal effects of transparency in an incentivized experiment. Transparency leads to less promise breaking but also to less generous promises. Rent appropriations are higher in opaque institutions though only weakly so when not fully opaque. Instrumental reputational concerns and preferences for truth-telling explain these results.
Keywords:
campaign promises; promise breaking; voting; lying costs; preferences for truth-telling; political Economy; theory; experiment;
JEL-Classification:
C91; C92; D72; D73; D91;